Midwest Natural Resources Group

MNRG - 2005 Cumulative Impacts Conference

Resources for Cumulative Impact Analysis - Spatial Models

Guidance on selecting models

Choosing a model for evaluating alternatives in support of NEPA analyses and documentation is extremely difficult.

Selection criteria includes:

Regardless of the modeling application, there are typically many models to choose from - each with differences in the above criteria.

Generally it is best to choose the modeler first and then allow the modeler to choose the "best" model.

Defense of the model is extremely important and can be accomplished in two ways:

  1. The model has been used many times and has a legal track record.
  2. The team using the model can present and defend every algorithm and line of computer code.

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Hydrologic Models

Sample management questions/concerns:
Discussion

Hydrologic models encompass overland, stream/river, and underground water flow rates and depth, They can also model dozens of water quality indices including temperature, dissolved oxygen, nitrates and nitrites, metals, organic chemicals, algae, silt/sediment, and other suspended materials. Models can be statistically or process based. They can divide the landscape into small parcels (e.g. 1-meter cells) or be lumped sum, treating whole or half watersheds as discrete elements. They can be raster GIS based, triangulated irregular networks, or finite-element based. Most of the mathematical formulations for moving water were established early in the 20th century and modern implementations combine these mathematics behind graphical user interfaces.

Listing of Water Analysis Resorces

This is a lengthy listing of Internet Web Sites to support source water

Reviews and Catalogs of Models

D. K. Borah, M. Bera (2004) Watershed-scale Hydrologic and Nonpoint-Source Pollution Models (PDF) (207K) Review of Mathematical Bases, Transaction of the ASAE, Vol. 46(6): 1553-1566

In this article, eleven modern watershed scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models are reviewed: AGNPS, AnnAGNPS, ANSWERS, ANSWERS-Continuous, CASC2D, DWSM, HSPF, KINEROS, MIKE SHE, PRMS, and SWAT. AnnAGNPS, ANSWERS-Continuous, HSPF, and SWAT are continuous simulation models useful for analyzing long-term effects of hydrological changes and watershed management practices, especially agricultural practices. Tables are providec comparing the models.

Spatial Hydrology

spatialhydrology.com/software_hydrostat.html
This website is connected to the Journal of Spatial Hydrology. It references and provides Web pointers to 99 models and modeling systems.

Books on hydrologic modeling

civilbooks.com - This site provides pointers to hundreds of hydrologic modeling books.

Corps of Engineers Modeling Catalog - 127 models are cataloged. For each model, several dozen pieces of standard information are provided including purpose, contacts, software and hardware requirements, and appropriateness for application.

Leading Packages
EPA (2004) BASINS - Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources

This package provides free software and watershed data to allow for the rapid development of watershed simulation models across the United States. It relies on proven hydrologic models such as HSPF (Hydrologic Software Program - FORTRAN). BASINS does more to make watershed hydrologic simulation modeling accessible than any other package.

Army Corps (2004)

These Corps of Engineers systems each pull together a large number of related hydrologic models behind a single consistent user interface. These models are available to those in the Corps at no charge and can be acquired commercially by others. They are constantly being updated and improved.

DHI Hydroinform

A number of modern packages of assorted hydrologic simulation software is available including MIKE SHE. an integrated surface water and ground water modeling system. 

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Air Models

Sample management questions/concerns: How will regional air quality change in response to the cumulative addition of specific future traffic and industry?

Discussion

Air models have been developed to predict air movement and concentrations of particles and chemicals in the air.  Models differ in their level of detail and time/space resolution.  Models that predict the average or maximum concentrations over the course of months or years are far different from 3-dimensional wind-field based models with time steps of a second or less.

Reviews of Models

Models reviewed here are of interest to NEPA practitioners.

EPA model reviews - This site provides reviews for these air dispersion models:

  1. BLP
  2. CALINE3
  3. CALPUFF
  4. CTDMPLUS
  5. ISC3
  6. OCD

Corps of Engineers review of models (PDF) (1.9MB) - This is an Army Corps of Engineer's technical report that contains reviews of several atmospheric and particle trajectory models:

Atmospheric Modeling

Trajectory Models

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Urban Growth Modeling

Sample management questions/concerns:
Discussion

There are dozens of urban growth models, each with different goals, costs, levels of detail, ease of use, and accuracy. Some are statistically based and are calibrated to match local patterns, while others are intnsive cause-effect models requireing detailed information about property owners, bankers, developers, and various socio-economic classes.

Reviews of Models

EPA, 2000, Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns (PDF) (271pp, 580K)

This is the best current review of available urban and regional growth models. It comprehensively analyzes 22 of the most frequently used models. Models reviewed:

California Urban Futures (CUF) Model: CUF-1
Provides a framework for simulating how growth and development policies might alter the location, pattern, and intensity of urban development

California Urban Futures (CUF) Model: CUF-2
Same as CUF-1 (CUF-2 addressed some of the theoretical holes of CUF-1)

California Urban and Biodiversity Analysis Model (CURBA)
Evaluates the possible effects of alternative urban growth patterns and policies on biodiversity and natural habitat quality

DELTA (formally DSCMODE)
Projects changes in urban areas, including the location of households, population, employment, and the amount of real estate development

Disaggregated Residential Allocation Model of Household Location and the Employment Allocation Model (DRAM/EMPAL)
Projects the interactions and distribution of employment and housing in a specified geographic area

Growth Simulation Model (GSM)
Projects population growth and new development effects on land use/land cover under alternative land management

INDEX®
Measures the characteristics and performance of land-use plans and urban designs with "indicators" derived from community goals and policies

IRPUD Model (formally Dortmund)
Projects the impacts of long-range economic and technological change on housing, transportation, public policies, land uses, and infrastructure

Land Transformation Model (LTM)
Integrates a variety of land use change driving variables to project impact on land use on a watershed level

Land-Use Change Analysis System (LUCAS)
Examines the impact of human activities on land use and the subsequent impacts on environmental and natural resource sustainability

Markov Model of Residential Vacancy Transfer
Explores changes in demand for various types of residential housing within a community

MEPLAN
Helps communities analyze the interrelated effects of land use and transportation and is designed to compare proposed plans/policies

METROSIM
Uses an economic approach forecasting interdependent effects of transportation and land use systems and of land use and transport policies

Sub-Area Allocation Model-Improved Method (SAM-IM)
Creates new land use scenarios that reflect alternative development concepts for the future

SLEUTH (formally Clarke Cellular Automata)
Projects urban growth and examines how new urban areas consume surrounding land and impact the natural environment

Smart Growth INDEX®
Evaluates transportation and land-use alternatives and assesses their impact on travel demand, land consumption, housing and employment density, and pollution emissions

Smart Places
Assists communities in the simulation and evaluation of land-use development and transportation alternatives using indicators of environmental performance

TRANUS
Analyzes the effects of land-use and transportation policies or combinations of policies on the location of various activities and the land market

UGrow
Projects long-term changes to communities in response to changes in transportation and fiscal policies

UPLAN
Creates alternative development patterns in response to changes in development and fiscal scenarios

UrbanSim
Explores how the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy shape a community’s development trends and affect the natural environment

What if?
Supports comprehensive community land-use planning in regard to determining land suitability for development, projecting future land-use demand, and providing the capability to allocate the demand to the most suitable location

Enhancement of DVRPC’s Travel Simulation Models: Task 12 — Review of Land Use Models and Recommended Model for DVRPC. (1996) In: Land Use Compandium, Lynette Engelke, editor. pp 113-169 Land Use Guidebook (PDF) (468K)

This provides an in-depth analysis of the most commonly used models for urban growth analysis: MEPLAN, DRAM-EMPAL, and METROSIM. It expertly classifies dozens of models by purpose and lineage: optimization, econometric-regression, and economically-based land use market models.

Herold, M, Menz, G. and Keith C. Clarke, K (date unknown) Remote Sensing and Urban Growth Models – Demands and Perspectives

Comparision of seven urban growth models:

Habitat Modeling

Sample management questions/concerns:

How will habitat extent and suitability change in response to the cumulative impacts of many projects?

Discussion

Habitat analysis is an essential part of most NEPA documentation. Analyses can be conducted at a variety of organizational scales from species, through populations, to ecosystems. When Federally listed threatened or endangered species are involved, analyses must focus on the long-term viability of populations. Ultimately this involves the development of a sufficiently large interbreeding population to ensure persistence of the species through natural disasters. This in turn requires an evaluation of the extent and fragmentation of suitable habitat into the forseeable future in response to anticipated cumulative impacts. Every species requires certain ranges of habitat characteristics (i.e. niche requirements), which involves many things including food sources, shelter, water, nesting areas, and risks associated with disease, competitors, and predators. There are no universally accepted approaches or models. Rather, local experts and species experts must be engaged to conduct NEPA studies.

Reviews of Models

FWS Habitat Evaluation Procedures Handbook - also includes Habitat Suitability Index information.

Software

RAMAS - The RAMAS software from Applied Biomathematics is probably the most well used code for modeling wildlife populations.

Transportation Modeling

Sample management questions/concerns:

Discussion

Transportation models primarily identify the traffic loads on a highway/road network if the capacities of the network links, the intersection control mechanisms, and the location of trip starting (e.g. homes) and ending (e.g. jobs and shopping) points are known. The resulting loads change the network travel times and can be used to predict local air quality and property values. Travel time information can be used to predict urban growth patterns which, in turn, affect the inputs to traffic models.

Models

The following models are currently supported.

TRANSIMS

"The TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) is a set of transportation and air quality analysis and forecasting procedures developed to meet the Clean Air Act, the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act, Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, and other regulations. It consists of mutually supporting simulations, models, and databases that employ advanced computational and analytical techniques to create an integrated regional transportation system analysis environment. By applying advanced technologies and methods, it simulates the dynamic details that contribute to the complexity inherent in today's and tomorrow's transportation issues."

TRANPLAN - "TRANPLAN (TRANsportation PLANning) is a set of integrated programs for the transportation planning process. It encompasses the four-step travel demand model of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and trip assignment for both highway and transit systems."

EMME/2 - "EMME/2 is a state-of-the-art system for planning the transportation of people on multimodal networks. It provides planners with a comprehensive and flexible set of tools for demand modelling, and network analysis and evaluation."

QRS II - "Quick Response System II runs the four-step planning process - trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, traffic/transit assignment - for highway and transit forecasting. Networks and data are entered and edited graphically using the powerful General Network Editor."

TransCAD "TransCAD combines GIS and transportation modeling capabilities in a single integrated platform, providing capabilities that are unmatched by any other package. TransCAD can be used for all modes of transportation, at any scale or level of detail. TransCAD provides: A powerful GIS engine with special extensions for transportation Mapping, visualization, and analysis tools designed for transportation applications Application modules for routing, travel demand forecasting, public transit, logistics, site location, and territory management."

VISUM - VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling and network data management. VISUM is applied on ever continent in the world for metropolitan, regional, statewide and national planning applications.